A great line from the hit series “Narcos” illustrates the law of large numbers idea more poetically. “The bad guys have to keep getting lucky. We only have to get lucky once.” No one outruns the law of large numbers forever.
“Take the probability of loss times the amount of possible loss from the probability of gain times the amount of possible gain. That is what we’re trying to do.” This is expected value.
The original concept of the “surface area of luck” is useful, but there is more to it. Read on to change your life with great serenity and better outcomes.